Downhearted by the death toll as a result of the military strikes, and by lack of support and logistics, the outlawed PKK wants to turn its failure in rural areas to triumph by spreading fear in cities.
As Turkey concentrates on rooting out terrorism through military and possible legal and social means, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is shifting its focus from rural warfare against military targets to urban attacks on civilians. Barring the fact that this brutality is deemed to be the PKK's last playing card, the creation of panic and fear among the public is beyond doubt.
Besides the deadly bomb attack late Thursday in the southeastern Anatolian province of Diyarbakır, the seizure of C-4 explosives in Van and Bursa as well as street violence that started with car torching in a number of cities including Istanbul stick out as the PKK's counter-strategy to retaliate against the Turkish military's cross-border offensive against terrorist hideouts in the north of Iraq.
“The recent military air raids against PKK targets in northern Iraq created an understanding within the organization that they can no longer enjoy safe haven in the region, something that has prompted the PKK to launch attacks in big cities in order to prove that it still has the capacity and power to challenge Turkey,” said retired Major Gen. Armağan Kuloğlu.
He told the Turkish Daily News that the PKK, demoralized by the death toll as a result of the Turkish military strikes and lack of support and logistics, was planning “to turn its failure in rural areas to triumph by spreading fear in cities.”
Kuloğlu, citing the latest car blast, said the PKK chose Diyarbakır to carry out the bombing due to the fact that the city, predominantly populated by Turkish citizens of Kurdish origin, has a symbolic meaning for them. “The terrorist group wants to create panic and pull the people of the region to their side,” Kuloğlu added.
Stronger seat?
The terrorist organization is resorting to violence maybe to take a stronger seat at the negotiating table given the carrot and stick approach adopted by the government forcing the PKK to lay down arms and using military action on the other side of the border as a pretext to intimidate the terrorists, said Nihat Ali Özcan, a senior foreign policy researcher.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) intends to bring down terrorists from the mountains by enhancing the repentance law, a move slammed by opposition parties who are up in arms against a general amnesty. But the government clarified it is not planning to introduce a new law but to treat PKK members under Article 221 of the penal code known as the repentance law.
However, the recent acts of violence reveal that members of the PKK have no intention of surrendering to security forces but instead will continue with their policy of causing bloodshed – not only in small towns but also in city centers, panicking the populace.
“This shows that the organization is wobbling and trying to find a way out as it is backed into corner,” said security expert Sedat Laçiner. “And this is not a herald of a tactical change.”
Last card
Explaining further, Laçiner said when terrorist groups are backed into corner, division starts due to disagreements among members, or the group tries other means of violence that were not applied in the past.
“The PKK is playing the last card: the international community, the United States and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani acknowledge the legitimacy of Turkey's fight against terrorism; and there is no lack of coordination between the government and the military. All of these are enough to infuriate the PKK,” he said.
Laçiner admitted that the hard-core phase in the fight against the PKK has “now” started and how Turkey reacts from now on to PKK provocations will determine the fate of the collective battle to eradicate the PKK.
“Patience and unity are what we need in the upcoming period. If Turkey moves ahead with the current strategy, 2008 will be the year when the PKK will be marginalized,” he added.
Drawing a parallel, Sadi Çaycı of the Ankara-based Eurasian Studies Center or ASAM said the PKK was showing signs of impotence. He explained that terrorist acts include a wide spectrum from armed conflicts to guerilla fighting and that terrorist organizations resort to guerilla tactics at the height of their power, applying classical methods when their power diminishes.
“This is what is happening in the case of the PKK,” he said. “The PKK clearly knows that it cannot win a victory over the Turkish Republic and is attempting to achieve its objectives step by step by wreaking havoc throughout the country.”
Çaycı said the military and political wings of the PKK, including the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), must revise their policies rationally because terrorism would not bring them what they actually want.
He also noted that it would not be possible to reduce terrorist actions to zero merely through military measures. “The victory in the fight against terror cannot be measured with the number of terrorists who are killed,” he said, highlighting the importance of the psychological war against terror.